Treasury in Volatile Markets: How to Stop Holding Risk You Don't Have To

Jeff Cafolla
Chief Executive Officer
Mar 17, 2026

Introduction
There are two separate costs in operating across an emerging market currency corridor. Most businesses focus on the first one, the payment cost, and manage the second one poorly or not at all.
The payment cost is visible: the transfer fee, the FX spread, the settlement delay. It is frustrating, it is measurable, and it has attracted most of the attention in the cross-border payments reform conversation.
The treasury cost is less visible and, for many businesses operating in volatile currency markets, significantly larger. It is the cost of holding the wrong currency while it depreciates.
This post is about the second problem, and the infrastructure that now exists to solve it.
What the Treasury Problem Actually Looks Like
Consider a concrete scenario. A Turkish manufacturing company exports textiles to Germany and receives €5 million per year in EUR payments. Each time a payment arrives, the CFO faces a decision: convert to Turkish Lira now, or try to hold EUR.
Converting to TRY means absorbing the current EUR/TRY spread (200–300 basis points at most Turkish commercial banks) plus accepting full exposure to ongoing lira depreciation. Holding EUR is theoretically better for value preservation, but for most mid-market Turkish businesses, EUR account structures are either unavailable or operationally inconvenient, counterparty limits constrain how much foreign currency can be held, and the banking infrastructure for managing EUR treasury balances is not designed for companies at this tier.
So most businesses do what the infrastructure forces them to do: convert immediately to TRY, absorb the spread, and carry on.
The cost of that decision is not visible on any individual payment receipt. It accumulates silently as the currency depreciates.
Between 2021 and 2024, the Turkish Lira lost approximately 75% of its value against the US dollar. A business that converted €1M equivalent into TRY in early 2021 held the equivalent of roughly €250,000 in real purchasing power by late 2024. The €750,000 difference was not lost to bad business decisions. It was lost to holding the wrong currency because the infrastructure to hold the right one was not available.
Turkey Is Not the Outlier. It Is the Pattern.
The TRY scenario is the most dramatic recent example, but the structural dynamic repeats across every major high-friction emerging market corridor.
Pakistan: the Pakistani rupee has depreciated over 60% since 2019. Businesses in the Gulf-Pakistan corridor, construction contractors, IT services firms and logistics companies receive AED or USD payments and convert immediately to PKR because their operating costs are in rupees. Each conversion is a new entry point into an asset that has lost more than half its value over five years.
Nigeria: the Naira FX crisis of 2023–2024 saw the parallel market spread reach over 60% above the official rate at its peak. The CBN's FX liberalisation in 2024 normalised the official rate, but NGN has still depreciated significantly over the medium term. Nigerian software firms and fintech companies receiving EUR or USD payments face the same conversion pressure.
Egypt: the Egyptian pound was devalued three times between 2022 and 2024, including a significant devaluation in March 2024 as a condition of the IMF's $8 billion support programme. Businesses with USD or EUR receivables that converted immediately to EGP on receipt have absorbed substantial real losses.
In each case, the structural problem is identical: businesses that need local currency for their operating costs such as payroll, rent, suppliers etc.. are forced to convert foreign currency receivables immediately or near-immediately, with no institutional-grade alternative for managing the timing of that conversion intelligently.
Why Most EM Businesses Cannot Access Standard Hedging Tools
The standard institutional response to currency exposure is hedging: using forward contracts, options, or non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) to lock in a future conversion rate and neutralise the depreciation risk.
This works well for large multinationals with treasury teams and prime brokerage relationships. It does not work for most of the businesses most affected by EM currency volatility.
NDF markets, the primary hedging instrument for currencies with capital controls or limited offshore liquidity, are accessible to institutions with the appropriate banking relationships and minimum transaction sizes. A mid-market Turkish manufacturer or Nigerian software firm typically cannot access the NDF market directly. Even where access exists, the premium embedded in the NDF rate reflects the market's assessment of the depreciation risk, you pay to hedge, and that cost is itself a drag on operating economics.
Forward contracts require banking relationships and credit lines that most SMEs operating in EM markets cannot establish with major FX banks. Options require upfront premium payments and operational sophistication to manage.
The hedging tools exist. They are not accessible to the businesses that most need them. That is an infrastructure gap, not a sophistication gap.
The Stablecoin Treasury Approach
The structural alternative to immediate local currency conversion is holding cross-border balances as stablecoins, specifically USDC or EURC within the same infrastructure that processed the original payment.
Rather than converting EUR payments to TRY on receipt, a Turkish business using RIVR's infrastructure can hold the balance as USDC or EURC. Those balances are stable-value instruments backed 1:1 by USD or EUR reserves, regulated under MiCA in the EU and the GENIUS Act in the US, and accessible 24/7 without the account structure constraints of a foreign currency bank account.
But holding stable value is only half the solution. The full solution is deploying those balances into institutional-grade yield instruments so that the capital is working rather than waiting.
The infrastructure for this now exists at institutional scale:
BlackRock BUIDL is a tokenised USD money market fund providing exposure to short-duration US government securities, accessible via USDC. Current target yield: 4–5% APY.
Ondo Finance's OUSG provides tokenised exposure to short-duration US Treasuries. $500 million+ in assets under management.
AAVE V3 institutional market provides a regulated lending venue for institutional USDC deployment. 4–8% APY depending on market conditions.
Morpho Blue operates 190+ lending markets with competitive supply APY typically in the 5–9% range.
The access requirements for these instruments, appropriate KYC, USDC holdings, are achievable by any business using modern stablecoin payment infrastructure. The prime brokerage prerequisite that previously restricted institutional fixed income access to large financial institutions is not required.
What the Numbers Look Like
Running the comparison concretely makes the value of the stablecoin treasury approach clear.
Scenario: a Turkish business holds the equivalent of $1 million in cross-border balances over the period 2021–2024.
Option A - immediate TRY conversion: the business converts to TRY on receipt and holds TRY through the period. Given TRY depreciation of approximately 75%, the USD-equivalent value of those balances at the end of the period is approximately $250,000. Net position: loss of $750,000 in real value.
Option B - USDC held in institutional yield instruments at 5% APY: the business holds USDC through the same period, deployed into a combination of tokenised T-bills and DeFi lending markets earning an average of 5% annually. After three years of compound yield, the balance has grown to approximately $1.16 million. Net position: gain of $160,000.
The difference between the two options on a single $1 million treasury holding decision, over three years, is approximately $910,000. That number is not derived from leverage, speculation, or unusual market timing. It is the straightforward consequence of holding a stable-value yield-bearing instrument rather than a rapidly depreciating local currency.
Not every scenario produces this level of contrast, PKR and EGP depreciation have been severe but not as extreme as TRY over the same period. But the structural point holds across all high-depreciation EM corridors: the cost of the wrong treasury decision is often larger than the cost of the payment itself.
The Integrated Payment and Treasury Solution
The full solution to the EM treasury problem is not a standalone treasury product sitting alongside a payment product. It is an integrated infrastructure where the same platform handles both the payment (moving money from origin to destination cheaply and quickly) and the treasury (holding and deploying cross-border balances intelligently between payments).
The integration matters for two reasons. First, it eliminates the friction of moving funds between a payment platform and a separate treasury instrument, a friction point that creates delays and additional costs. Second, it gives businesses a single view of their cross-border capital position: where funds are, what they are earning, when they need to be converted to local currency for operational spending.
RIVR's treasury layer is built into the same platform as the payment infrastructure. Cross-border balances held as USDC or EURC within the platform can be allocated into institutional yield strategies such as T-bill instruments, DeFi lending markets, or a combination with a single configuration. When the business needs to convert to local currency for operational use, the conversion routes through the same settlement architecture as the original payment: efficient, fast, and at institutional pricing.
Key Takeaway
The conversation about cross-border payment reform has focused almost entirely on reducing the cost and time of the transit leg, the movement of money from A to B. That is the right problem to work on. But for businesses operating in volatile currency environments, the transit problem is often smaller than the treasury problem that begins the moment the money arrives.
The infrastructure to address the treasury problem now exists at institutional scale: stable-value stablecoins regulated under MiCA and the GENIUS Act, institutional yield instruments accessible without prime brokerage relationships, and payment platforms that integrate treasury management directly into the cross-border payment workflow.
The businesses that integrate both solutions, cheaper transit and smarter treasury, will capture the full value of the infrastructure improvement. Those that address only one will leave the other half of the opportunity on the table.
If your business holds significant cross-border balances in volatile EM currencies and you want to explore the stablecoin treasury approach, we would be glad to walk through the numbers for your specific corridors.